Low Wages, Uncertainty About Growth & Recovery
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2/10/2018
My view is that Tucson is still one of the worst major cities for young people because of paucity of jobs; low and stagnant wages; and little to do outside of hiking a few cultural venues - and remains an employment trap. If you lose your job, you will be hard put to replace it. You may also be hard-pressed to keep your house.
Arizona does not believe in government or government jobs so you have very little local government presence anywhere in the state or in its counties, much less worker protections like unions. This leaves workers in Arizona very exposed as there is no government presence in most fields to provide an economic base for the field in general. And what used to be publicly-run like prisons and schools has now been privatized. In this case, what is good for taxes is horrible for workers. As a consequence, there aren't much in the way of options, making drugs an over-sized problem with young people because there isn't much else to do. This problem really affects Tucson because there simply aren't enough quality jobs here to begin with.
Downtown (2017...finally...feel like it's really coming together nicely!) and the area around the university receive attention but rest of Tucson still has a long, long way to go, especially major thoroughfares like Speedway. Most of Tucson has experienced decades of neglect that won't be turned around soon although it is still a small to medium-sized city. Most people in Arizona don't know that cities have to run balanced budgets meaning that every dime spent downtown comes from other areas.
Freeways and east-west cross town movement of traffic are growing problems for Tucson. The population and government shows no desire to deal with these issues for the time being.
The prevailing attitude by the populace is still anti-growth and hands-off which means the above problems will continue to plague the area for years and probably decades to come.
It is also not clear if the current economic recovery that is benefiting most of the country will be in Tucson long enough to leave a huge mark on metro Tucson. Tucson has been one of the last cities to emerge from the Great Recession of 2008. In Tucson, the recovery finally got legs in 2017. It won't take much to send it back into recession if interest rates go up too high or too quickly. Unless someone knows something I don't, there still is not enough quality employment to go around in Tucson to prevent another major recession if the very recent flurry in construction loses momentum.
Tucson promises to be an up and coming city, attracting a younger and more sophisticated crowd on par with Portland or Austin but I think that's more 'fake it until you make it' or 'wishful thinking' than reality. I think that Tucson has wanted to move in this direction for a long time but hasn't been able to because of it's huge base of retirees and reliance on more conservative large employers (defense, healthcare). Although Caterpillar is bringing some of its executive positions to town, Tucson simply doesn't have a large enough influx of left-leaning people and values/attitudes to make this occur. If anything, the university and area have shifted to the right over recent decades. Unless someone knows something I don't, Caterpillar is not a left-leaning company.
Tuscon still has a very cyclical and lop-sided economy. It has not learned lessons from past recessions and cycles. It does not have a diverse enough employment base. It is unclear if the population with the most power, mainly white retirees, really wants a diverse employment base because they have repeatedly voiced opposition to the growth and increased congestion that comes with economic growth. It is my belief that smart growth is possible and that Tucson can even be a leader here but again, I'm also certain that ANY growth will sit poorly with retirees. Although the median age for Tucson may be the mid-'30s, in reality it's the retirees that are most visible and vocal in most parts of the metro area.
To vote against growth and economic diversification is SUICIDE for Tucson. It's more left-leaning environmental and right-leaning conservative groups have not wanted to see too much growth in Tucson. There must be some compromise or some way to bring about 'smart growth' for the sake of the population that's here and the people Tucson hopes to attract. Tucson cannot continue on its previous heading of no-growth. That led to poorly planned growth and lack of coordination with surrounding municipalities.
In balance, Tucson is a great place to live if you don't work or you don't need a job and you like a small town lifestyle. It is a lousy place to live if you do work and/or you do need a job and you like options. How long has this be said? Tucson is a lesson in that natural beauty and enviable climates do not necessarily attract people and cannot keep people. Tucson is still a very transient city mainly because of all these reasons.
Clive | Tucson, AZ