Is The First Person To Live To 150 Already Among Us

New Study from BestPlaces Reveals the Cities They May Call Home

Scientists are now speculating that humans may live 150 years. And they are linking that far-off future to the present by theorizing that the first person to live to 150 has already been born. But where might this future supercentenarian call home? What unique factors could contribute to their remarkable longevity?

To tackle these questions, Sperling's BestPlaces was approached by Medtronic, a global leader in healthcare technology, to pinpoint the 10 U.S. places most likely to nurture the next person to challenge the limits of age.

The findings? Prepare to be surprised.

"When I got the call asking for our help with this unique project, I was truly excited. Even though BestPlaces has worked on a broad range of timely studies, this one would push our investigation and analysis in new directions," said Bert Sperling, president of the BestPlaces group. "And it was a great opportunity to partner with Medtronic, which is widely recognized as an innovative leader in the health technology space."

Here are the top ten metros where the first person who could reach 150 may live:

1. Washington, D.C.
2. San Francisco, Calif.
3. Bridgeport, Conn.
4. Boston, Mass.
5. Seattle, Wash.
6. Madison, Wis.
7. Honolulu, Hawaii
8. Portland, Ore.
9. Denver, Colo.
10. Raleigh, N.C.

Methodology

Meta-study

At BestPlaces, we often use the framework of a "meta-study", which is a relatively new discipline. A meta-analysis includes multiple independent studies which aggregates their original results to draw a broader conclusion. The result is based on the combined effect of all the component studies. To allow the multiple study results to be combined and compared, we statistically rescale and normalize each data set. We also weight the individual component data sets to reflect their relative importance related to our specific meta-study.

Meta-study workflow

• Formulate a research question
• Identify relevant research and literature
• Evaluate and screen studies for inclusion
• Extract and consolidate data from studies
• Appraise and prepare data
• Rescale and normalize data as needed
• Determine and apply weighting to data sets
• Synthesize data into a summary
• Conduct exploratory analyses and interpret findings

Geographies

For this type of study, we usually compare "metropolitan areas" to each other, instead of cities. For our study, we used the 100 largest U.S. metro areas as our study universe, and chose the top spots from those 100 places.

Metropolitan areas are defined by the United States Office of Management and Budget, and include a central city and the surrounding county (or counties.) This methodology fits well with the public perception of a city, since it encompasses the surrounding suburbs where much of an area's population resides. Over 67% of all U.S. citizens reside in these 100 largest metro areas.

Key factors for this study

Our research led us to focus on these data points, which were found to be most highly correlated with longevity and wellness. By identifying the metropolitan areas which score the highest in each category, we can find those places where their residents already on the path towards a long and healthy life.

• Gender
• Life expectancy
• Strong social capital
• Health resources
• Community wellness
• Healthy eating
• Other indicators

Gender and life expectancy are self-explanatory, but "social capital" includes a number of indicators which researchers have proposed as important to healthy aging. These include family unity, community, non-profit institutions, volunteering, religious congregations, civic engagement and activities, and social associations.

Health resources metrics include the number and quality of nearby hospitals, availability of various categories of physicians, and the local food environment.

Community wellness is very important, because each of us are greatly influenced by the health choices of our neighbors, family and friends. Metrics of community wellness include percent of the population reporting days of physical or mental poor health, smoking rates, obesity, excessive alcohol use, lack of medical insurance, children in single-parent households, teen birth rate and air quality. Healthy eating habits were also considered, focusing on plant-based food choices, which researchers have associated with healthy aging.

Metrics not included in this study

We did not include any data associated with a population's race or ethnicity (i.e. Latino). In our research of the data and existing studies, we did not see a clear correlation between longevity. Accordingly, we chose not to use the racial and or ethnic characteristics of an area's population.

We also analyzed data from the "World Population Prospects" representing the latest global set of demographic estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

Examining life expectancy data by country, we found wide variations with the same races and nearby regions. For example, Asian regions and countries had some of the highest and lowest life expectancy estimates. It was apparent that differences in life expectancy were more environmental and/or societal that could be attributed to race and ethnicity.

Findings

Here are the top ten metros where the first person who could reach 150 may live:

1. Washington, D.C.
2. San Francisco, Calif.
3. Bridgeport, Conn.
4. Boston, Mass.
5. Seattle, Wash.
6. Madison, Wis.
7. Honolulu, Hawaii
8. Portland, Ore.
9. Denver, Colo.
10. Raleigh, N.C.

The research also uncovered these highlights on longevity:

• Key drivers of longevity and wellness in ranked locations: Factors influencing a longer, healthier life include strong social connections, overall wellness indicators (such as rates of smoking, obesity, physical activity, and diet), access to healthcare resources and high educational attainment within the community.

• The role of gender in longevity, with women leading the way: The person likely to become the first to reach 150 years of age is almost certainly female, as women generally have a significant advantage in longevity, though the exact reasons remain unclear.

• Many believe advancements in technology will enable longer, healthier lives: A majority of U.S. adults agree that if a 150 year lifespan is possible, healthcare technology will play a role - more specifically, they believe brain stimulation (70%), personalized medicine (69%), AI (66%), and robotics (66%) will have a beneficial impact on living healthy to this unprecedented age.

About the rankings:

• This report explores the factors that may contribute to exceptional longevity, considering the potential for human lifespan to reach 150 years in the future.

• By analyzing current data and studying the characteristics of "superagers" (individuals who live to 100 or older), the study aims to gain insights into the lifestyle and environment that may support such remarkable longevity.

• Insights drawn from today's "superagers" provide a foundation for understanding how this future 150-year-old might live and thrive.

• The ranking is based on key metrics including social capital, wellness, educational attainment and life expectancy.

About Medtronic

Medtronic plc, headquartered in Galway, Ireland, is a leading global healthcare technology company that attacks the most challenging health problems facing humanity by searching out and finding solutions. With a global team of 95,000+ people across more than 150 countries, its technologies and therapies treat 70 health conditions and include cardiac devices, surgical robotics, insulin pumps, surgical tools, patient monitoring systems, and more. For more information, visit www.Medtronic.com.

About Bert Sperling and BestPlaces

Bert Sperling and the team at BestPlaces investigated where in the U.S. this 150-year person is mostly likely to have been born. Sperling's work on quality of life, including his bestselling books ranking major places in the U.S. and Canada, has been widely discussed in the media, and his website, BestPlaces.net, helps millions of users each month discover their ideal place to live.